Uncertainty and Economics

‘Uncertainty and Economics’ – has modern economic theory forgotten its roots? 

Between the first and second world wars, Keynes and the Chicago economist Frank Knight emphasised the distinction between risk - which you could quantify with probabilities - and uncertainty - which you could not.

Modern economics has abolished that distinction. In this talk John Kay will explain why that was a mistake, how recognising that undermines much of finance theory and modern macroeconomics - and talk about how people really make decisions in uncertain worlds.

John Kay is one of Britain’s leading economists. His work is centred on the relationships between economics, finance and business. His career has spanned academic work and think tanks, business schools, company directorships, consultancies and investment companies. John has been a Fellow of St John’s College, Oxford since 1970 and has held chairs at London Business School, the University of Oxford, and the LSE. 

Outside of academia, Kay is a director of several public and private companies. He is also the author of many articles and has contributed regularly to the Financial Times for over 20 years. His most recent book, Other People’s Money, was published in 2015 to wide acclaim.